Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 19.301248 23.302911 27.738567 32.993796 39.022755 45.695489 53.610642
2025-03-09 13.251188 18.384136 24.697856 32.918425 43.212162 55.544024 71.289865
2025-03-16 9.211852 14.382845 21.315631 31.044006 44.067120 60.605605 82.862219
2025-03-23 7.487100 12.877355 20.620138 32.133341 48.338378 69.814419 99.822679
2025-03-30 5.838117 11.054147 19.066869 31.652371 50.204791 75.756400 112.668781
2025-04-06 5.066719 10.399650 19.057623 33.267966 54.990095 85.808589 131.471017
2025-04-13 3.717565 8.452231 16.685596 30.938379 53.683974 87.090706 138.049629
2025-04-20 3.145103 7.763631 16.241759 31.531490 56.736048 94.715634 153.896375
2025-04-27 2.717335 7.252347 16.008155 32.400114 60.220119 103.104432 171.187455
2025-05-04 2.393049 6.877185 15.951525 33.530101 64.156313 112.330585 190.081443
2025-05-11 2.065871 6.413969 15.648356 34.163804 67.273765 120.400537 207.531733
2025-05-18 1.701167 5.763905 14.867186 33.816784 68.662965 125.766377 221.012781
2025-05-25 1.328482 5.019003 13.846211 33.060301 69.568431 130.872234 235.121290
2025-06-01 1.068560 4.493467 13.214951 33.010119 71.773109 138.322220 253.478517
2025-06-08 0.764544 3.698809 11.790336 31.133009 70.423911 139.697522 262.072951
2025-06-15 0.660192 3.508663 11.782414 32.224950 74.714632 150.871725 287.125352
2025-06-22 0.513070 3.090851 11.101217 31.742881 75.900261 156.681040 303.484662
2025-06-29 0.461254 3.022445 11.340685 33.362178 81.338882 170.239986 333.383400
2025-07-06 0.310711 2.431013 9.967997 31.027242 78.585260 168.939960 337.904192
2025-07-13 0.259228 2.269822 9.823449 31.621722 81.900705 178.824688 362.056812
2025-07-20 0.221101 2.153454 9.792757 32.492342 85.850895 190.049340 388.936777
2025-07-27 0.192624 2.073126 9.862299 33.624910 90.433145 202.644932 418.650285
2025-08-03 0.161060 1.947409 9.748832 34.260052 93.962850 213.384873 445.410477